- Three-month export expectations improve by 2.3 percentage points, to 29.1 percent of companies
- Remarkable improvement in the order book of companies that export up to three million euros; Those that export more than 15 million euros fall
- The perception of the evolution of export prices also improves compared to the second quarter of the year
- In the third quarter of 2012, the Synthetic Indicator of Export Activity decreased 5.3 points compared to the second quarter
- The negative value of the indicator is only due to the order book; the other two components that comprise it, expectations at three months and twelve months, in a positive sign
The export conjuncture survey for the third quarter of 2012 prepared by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness shows an improvement in export forecasts for three months with an increase of 2.3 points in the percentage of companies that expect to increase their operations, up to 29.1%. In the registered data, the percentage of companies that expect a downward evolution of their exports to 28.3% decreases by 0.8 points compared to the percentage of the previous quarter.
The survey data shows at the same time a slight fall in the Synthetic Indicator of Export Activity (ISAE), which stands at -3.9 points, a value 5.3 points lower than that corresponding to the second quarter of the year.
The negative value of the indicator is only due to the order book, since the other two components that make up the indicator (three-month and twelve-month expectations) enter this quarter with a positive sign in its calculation.
Synthetic Indicator of Export Activity (ISAE)(one)
The export situation survey for the third quarter of 2012 registers a slight fall in the Synthetic Indicator of Export Activity (ISAE), which stands at -3.9 points, a value 5.3 points lower than that corresponding to the second quarter of the year ( See Graph 1).
The negative value of the indicator is due solely to the order book, since the other two components that make up the indicator (expectations at three and twelve months) enter this quarter with a positive sign in its calculation.
From July to September, ISAE presents lower values for all sectors except for the food sector. The reduction, compared to the second quarter, is greater in the sectors of energy products (-11.6 points), capital goods (-11.4 points), chemical products (-9.1 points) and consumer manufactures (- 8.4 points).
Considering the export volume of the companies, it is observed that in this quarter there is a notable improvement in the companies that export for a value between 0.03 and 0.6 million euros (+4.1 points in the third quarter compared to +1.3 points in the second) and in those that export for a value between 0.6 and 3 million euros (+6.6 in the third quarter compared to +3.6 in the second quarter), worsening in the companies that export for a value between 3 and 15 million euros (+1.7 in the third quarter compared to 3.9 in the second) and in which they export more than 15 million euros (-7.0 in the third quarter vs. + 0.4 in the previous quarter).
It should be noted that ISAE experienced a notable drop in 2011 and that in the first two quarters of this year it recovered the positive zone of the index.
Portfolio of orders and expectations
Expectations about the evolution of the order book to three months improve with an increase of 2.3 points in the percentage of companies that expect to increase their exports, reaching 29.1%. The percentage of companies that expect a downward trend to 28.3% also decreased by 0.8 points compared to the percentage of the previous quarter. Regarding companies that expect stability in their order book, the percentage is 42.3%, 1.7 percentage points less than the previous quarter. (See Graph 3).
The twelve-month expectations fall slightly, although a majority of companies with stable or rising expectations remain. The percentage of companies that consider that their order book will remain stable for one year increases (47.1%, 4.1 points more than in the second quarter). Furthermore, 36.9% of the companies surveyed expect their export order book to have an upward variation, 7 percentage points less than in the previous quarter. (See Graph 3).
Regarding the order book, the majority of the companies consulted, 42.4% (1.9 percentage points less than in the previous quarter), has kept their export order book stable (Graph 2). The percentage of companies that have an upward perception of the export order portfolio during the third quarter of 2012 decreased, decreasing 2.8 percentage points to 22.3%. The percentage of companies with a perceived reduction in their export order book increases by 4.5 percentage points to stand at 35%.
Export prices and trade margin
– Evolution of export prices
Improves the perception of the evolution of export prices. 13.3% of the companies surveyed consider that export prices have evolved upwards, increasing this percentage by 1.1 points compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, the percentage of companies that consider that export prices have evolved downwards has decreased 4.1 points, reaching 20.6%.
As in the previous quarters, most companies, 65.9%, consider that their export prices have remained stable. This percentage is 2.9 points higher than in the second quarter of 2012.
– Evolution of the export profit margin
Most companies consider that their export commercial profit margin remains stable in the third quarter of this year, at 54.1% (increasing 1 percentage point compared to the result of the previous quarter).
On the other hand, the percentage of companies that consider that their profit margin has increased is 6.6%, decreasing 0.4 points compared to the last quarter. Likewise, the percentage of companies that consider that their profit margin has been reduced stands at 38.0% (increasing 1.3 points).
Factors that affect export activity (See Chart 4)
– Positive factors
The factors that the companies consulted consider to have a positive impact on export activity are the evolution of external demand (35.9% of those surveyed); competition in quality (18.8%), whose importance increases 2.5 percentage points to become the second most relevant factor during this quarter; and the exchange rate (14.5%).
– Negative factors
Regarding the negative factors, the companies surveyed consider that the factors that most affect them in exports are the price of oil (71.7%, 9.6 percentage points more than in the previous quarter); the price of raw materials (69.3% of the companies surveyed); price competition (55.4%); and the availability of external financing (39.3%).
Evolution by destination markets
In this third quarter of 2012, 49.2% of companies that regularly export to the European Union have maintained stable their portfolio of export orders to this destination. 19.2% has increased community orders, while 31.0% has reduced them. Regarding the euro area, 18.9% of companies indicate that the order book has evolved upwards, while 31.9% of companies surveyed consider that their orders directed to the euro area have decreased.
In the same way, the stability of the evolution of export orders in the quarter has been the most chosen option by companies that regularly export to the rest of the destinations considered, with the highest percentages corresponding to Oceania (54.4%), rest of countries of the European Union that do not belong to the euro zone (51.6%) and the rest of Europe that does not belong to the EU of 27 (50.7%). (See table 1).
Within the euro zone, companies have stated that the main destination countries of the current order book have been France, Germany and Italy. Within the area corresponding to the rest of the member countries of the European Union, exports have been directed mainly to the United Kingdom. The United States and Brazil are the main declared destinations for the North America and Latin America areas, respectively, during the third quarter of the year. China has been the main export destination for companies that have declared that they exported to Asia in this period and within the countries of Africa, the companies declare that their main export country is Morocco, well ahead of Algeria.
Regarding the three-month forecasts of the evolution of the export order book, 45.2% of companies that regularly export to the EU-27 expect their orders to this destination to remain stable, and 30, 5% increase. For their part, 23.2% of companies believe that their sales in the European Union will decrease in the next three months. The short-term export forecast for the rest of the regions has remained stable.
As stated by the companies surveyed, the main export destinations of Spanish companies in the next twelve months are estimated to be France (29.1%) and Germany (27.3%), and to expand markets in the United States ( 12.6%), Italy (12.1%), the United Kingdom (12.1%), Russia (11.3), Portugal (10.7%) and China (10.2%).
(one) The ISAE is an indicator that summarizes the information provided by the companies interviewed about the evolution of their portfolio of export orders in the reference quarter and the perspectives on it at three and twelve months.
This indicator can take values between -100 and +100, so that positive values indicate a better perception of export activity and / or the forecasts regarding its future evolution by the companies in the sample and vice versa.
