• The rebound is due to the most volatile components, energy and fresh food, and is transitory
  • The underlying CPI remains stable, thanks to the moderation in service prices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, compared with a decrease of 0.2% a year earlier. Consequently, the year-on-year rate has increased four tenths of a percentage point, to 2.1%, according to data published today by the National Statistics Institute (INE). This increase in the annual inflation rate is mainly explained by the heading of fuels and fuels, which registered moderate growth in June this year compared to a sharp drop in the same month last year. A second, smaller contribution comes from increased inflation of fresh food.

The annual rate of energy products It has increased to 1% from -1.8% last May, due to the evolution of its main item, fuels and fuels. These have increased their annual rate from -0.1% last May to 3.8% in June. For their part, fresh food They have increased their annual rate by 0.4 percentage points, to 5.3%. This increase is due to the acceleration in the prices of potatoes and their preparations, poultry meat and fresh fruits, whose rates have increased to 34.3%, 2.1% and 11.7%, respectively. On the contrary, the meat of ovino that has lowered -0.4%.

Core inflation The stable core of prices has remained at 2%. The moderation in service inflation has offset the slight acceleration in processed foods and non-energy industrial goods (BINES) have maintained their annual rate. The services reduce their annual rate by one tenth, to 1.9%, due to intercity public transport, leisure and automobile insurance. In the opposite direction, hotels and other accommodations evolved, whose annual rate rose from 0.5% in May to 1.3% in June. Processed food increases its annual rate from 2.9% in May to 3%. The slight increase in the annual rate of processed foods has been due to the rise in milk, alcoholic beverages and oils and fats. In this last game, the main inflationary tensions of this group continue to be concentrated, with an annual increase of 24%. In BINES, the heading of medicines and therapeutic material stands out as more inflationary, the annual rate of which remains at 27.4%. On the contrary, there is a moderation in clothing and footwear, whose annual rate falls from 0.3% in May to 0.1%.

The monthly change in the CPI was 0.1%, compared to the decrease of a year earlier (-0.2%). The monthly increase is due to fresh food, which increased by 1.6%, as a result of the increase in the cost of fresh fruit (10.3%) and potatoes (7.5%) and hotels and other accommodation (4%). Tourism (0.7%), long-distance public transport (0.8%) and fuels and fuels (0.5%) have contributed to a lesser extent. Conversely, the decrease in clothing and footwear (-1.1%) due to the effect of the start of the summer sales.

The Autonomous Communities with the highest year-on-year inflation rate in June were Cantabria (3%), Catalonia (2.6%) and Murcia (2.5%). The least inflationary communities were Melilla (0.7%), Ceuta (1.3%) and Canarias (1.6%).

In June, the annual rate of the CPI for constant taxes increased four tenths, down to 0.1% and the underlying rate remains at 0.0%. In the constant tax index, the annual rate of energy was -1.8% (-4.4% last month) and that of fresh food, 4.3% (3.9% in May) . Within the core of inflation underlying constant taxes, BINES prices fell 0.7%, one tenth more than in May, processed foods rose 1.7% (1.6% last month) and service prices fell 0.1% (as in May).

The INE has also published the harmonized CPI (IPCA) for June, whose annual rate stands at 2.2%, 0.4 points above that of the previous month. When compared to the annual rate estimated by Eurostat for the euro area as a whole (1.6%), the differential unfavorable to Spain would increase by two tenths, to stand at 0.6 points.

In short, the increase in inflation in June is mainly explained by the evolution of the prices of the most volatile components, energy and in particular its main heading, fuels and fuels, and by fresh food. Conversely, core inflation does not vary. For these reasons, it is considered to be a temporary rebound, so that inflation will return to the downward path throughout the rest of the year.

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