• The rebound is due to the most volatile components, energy and fresh food, and is transitory
  • The underlying CPI remains stable, thanks to the moderation of service prices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered an inter-monthly increase of 0.1% in June, compared to a 0.2% decrease a year earlier. Consequently, the interannual rate has increased four tenths percent, up to 2.1%, according to data published today by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). This increase in the annual inflation rate is mainly explained by the departure of fuels and fuels, which registered a moderate growth in June this year compared to a sharp fall in the same month last year. A second contribution, of lesser amount, comes from the increase in inflation of fresh food.

The annual rate of energy products It has increased to 1% from -1.8% last May, due to the evolution of its main item, fuels and fuels. These have increased their annual rate from -0.1% last May to 3.8% in June. For their part, the fresh food they have increased their annual rate by 0.4 percentage points, up to 5.3%. This increase is due to the acceleration of the prices of potatoes and their preparations, poultry and fresh fruits, whose rates have increased to 34.3%, 2.1% and 11.7%, respectively. In the opposite direction, sheep meat that has dropped -0.4%.

Core inflation o Stable core of prices has remained at 2%. The moderation of service inflation has offset the slight acceleration of processed foods and non-energy industrial goods (BINES) have maintained their annual rate. The services reduce their annual rate by one tenth, up to 1.9%, due to the effect of intercity public transport, recreation and car insurance. In the opposite direction, hotels and other accommodations evolved, whose annual rate rose from 0.5% in May to 1.3% in June. Processed food increases its annual rate from 2.9% in May to 3%. The slight increase in the annual rate of processed foods has been due to the rise in milk, alcoholic beverages and oils and fats. In this last game, the main inflationary tensions of this group continue to be concentrated, with an annual increase of 24%. In BINES, the item of drugs and therapeutic material stands out as more inflationary, with an annual rate of 27.4%. On the contrary, there is a moderation of clothing and footwear, whose annual rate is reduced from 0.3% in May to 0.1%.

The monthly variation of the CPI has been 0.1%, compared to a year earlier (-0.2%). The monthly increase responds to fresh food that rises 1.6%, as a result of the increase in fresh fruit (10.3%) and potatoes (7.5%) and hotels and other accommodations (4%). To a lesser extent, tourism (0.7%), interurban public transport (0.8%) and fuels and fuels (0.5%) have contributed. In the opposite direction, the decrease in clothing and footwear (-1.1%) due to the effect of the start of summer sales.

The Autonomous Communities with the highest annual inflation rate in June were Cantabria (3%), Catalonia (2.6%) and Murcia (2.5%). The least inflationary communities were Melilla (0.7%), Ceuta (1.3%) and the Canary Islands (1.6%).

In June, the annual rate of the CPI at constant taxes increased four tenths, to 0.1% and the underlying rate remains at 0.0%. In the constant tax index, the annual energy rate was -1.8% (-4.4% last month) and that of fresh food, 4.3% (3.9% in May) . Within the core of inflation underlying constant taxes, BINES prices fell 0.7%, one tenth more than in May, processed food rose 1.7% (1.6% last month) and Service prices fell 0.1% (as in May).

The INE has also published the harmonized CPI (IPCA) for June, whose annual rate stands at 2.2%, 0.4 points above that of the previous month. When comparing with the annual rate estimated by Eurostat for the whole euro zone (1.6%), the unfavorable differential to Spain would increase by two tenths, reaching 0.6 points.

In short, the increase in inflation in June is mainly explained by the evolution of the prices of the most volatile components, energy and in particular its main item, fuels and fuels, and by fresh food. In contrast, core inflation does not vary. For these reasons, it is considered that it is a temporary rebound, so that inflation will return to the downward path throughout the rest of the year.

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