In November, the interannual rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerates three tenths to 0.4%. With this data, and although some additional rebound is expected, it can be said that inflation remains at very contained levels, which confirms the absence of inflationary pressures in the Spanish economy.
In addition, core inflation also remains very moderate, registering the same annual rate as in the previous two months (1.0%). Analyzing its components, it is observed that all of them continue to show very moderate increases. Thus, the prices of services increase by one tenth their rate of variation, up to 1.5% and processed foods, beverages and tobacco also increase two tenths to 0.9%, while the prices of industrial goods without Energy products decrease one tenth to 0.4%.
The prices of unprocessed foods increase their variation rate by nine tenths and stand at 2.7%. Fresh fruits are the rubric that has a greater impact on this increase, as their prices decrease less this November than in the same month of 2018, although this increase also affects the greater increase in fish and seafood prices this year .
Energy prices in November, although they continue to show declines, moderate their rate of decline. Specifically, the interannual rate in this month of the prices of energy products has been -5.2%, more than one percentage point less than in the previous month.
As for the price of oil, in November it began to rebound again, due to the agreement of OPEC + – OPEC members and other independent allied producers – to reduce its production from January 2020. Brent crude stood at 63.8 dollars / barrel of monthly average, 5.7% higher than in October and -0.3% lower than a year ago. As of December, it is already around 67 dollars / barrel, which would mean an increase of 19.7% year-on-year in dollars and 23.4% in euros.
The Harmonized Consumer Price Index stood at 0.5% in November, three tenths more than in October, and the average Economic and Monetary Union index also increased three tenths to 1.0%, according to the indicator Eurostat advanced. Thus, the differential with the euro zone accumulates thirteen months in negative.
The inflation forecast for December is around 1% and the average annual inflation rate for the whole of 2019 at 0.7%, below the expected average inflation for the Eurozone (1.2%, according to ECB). This improvement in price competitiveness, through moderation of inflation, should be accompanied by the containment of other costs (fiscal, labor …) and economic policy measures that favor the growth of the productivity of the Spanish economy.