- The CPI containment of September responds to all components, especially fruits and vegetables
- The differential with the euro zone becomes favorable to Spain by 0.6 points, according to Eurostat's estimate
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% in September, compared to the 1% advance a year earlier. Consequently, the interannual rate has decreased 1.2 percentage points with respect to that of August, up to 0.3%, according to data published today by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). It is the lowest annual rate since November 2009.
To this important fall in inflation have contributed all the major components of the CPI, especially unprocessed food mainly due to the decrease in fruits and vegetables (-14.9% monthly). It has also influenced the step effect derived from the increase in VAT rates in September 2012 and the exclusion of various medicines from the financing of the National Health System.
The energy products They have registered an annual rate of -3.7%, compared to -2.2% last August. Among these, its main component, fuels and fuels, reduced its annual rate from -1.1% last August to -2.3% in September, as a result of the moderation of the price of gasoline and diesel.
For its part, the annual rate of unprocessed foods It has decreased markedly, 4.8 percentage points, up to 2.8%, due to the intense moderation of fresh fruit prices. These have reduced their annual rate by almost 14 percentage points, up to 12%. This result corrects part of the uptick that has been registered in these products since last spring. The potato is still the most inflationary item of this group, with an annual rate of 20.8%, despite the reduction of 10.4 points compared to August. On the contrary, it is worth mentioning the moderation of fresh vegetables and sheepmeat, with annual rates of -4.6% and -4.1%, respectively.
The Underlying inflation The stable core of prices has registered a significant decrease of eight tenths, up to 0.8%, due to the moderation of the prices of Non-Energy Industrial Goods (BINES) and services and, to a lesser extent, of processed foods The annual rate of BINES has decreased 1.2 percentage points since August, to -0.8%. It is the result, mainly, of the aforementioned discount of the VAT upward step in September 2012 and of the corresponding increase in the item of medicines and therapeutic material of a year earlier, the latter heading which has moderated its annual rate 7.6 points, up to 0.3%.
The services they have reduced their annual rate seven tenths, up to 1%, a moderation that has responded to most of their items, which now discount the effect of the VAT increase a year earlier; the rubric communications It is the one that shows a greater fall, with an annual rate of -5.9%, 2.5 points lower than the previous month. For its part, processed food, beverages and tobacco reduces its annual rate, from 3.3% in August to 3%. This deceleration responds, fundamentally, to the items in which the VAT increase was most noted a year earlier, such as alcoholic beverages, coffee, cocoa and infusions, sugar, and other food preparations. The prices of oils and fats, despite the moderation of recent months, continue to lead the inflationary tensions of this group by registering an annual rate of 21.4%, 1.8 percentage points lower than in August.
The monthly decrease of two tenths of the general index is due, in particular, to fresh food and services. The first decreased by 4%, mainly due to the fall registered in fresh fruits (-14.9%). The services reduced their prices by 0.8%, due to the fall of their main item, tourism and hospitality, which fell 2.5%. On the contrary, it is worth mentioning the rise in clothing and footwear (4.6%), which is seasonal in the face of the new autumn winter campaign, and of pigmeat (1.2%), sheep ( 1%), beef (1%) and poultry (-0.2%).
All Autonomous Communities have registered falls in annual inflation rates. The Autonomous Communities with the highest annual inflation rate in September were Cantabria (0.8%), Basque Country (0.7%), Murcia (0.6%) and Castilla y León (0.6%). The least inflationary communities were Melilla (-0.7%), Canary Islands (-0.4%), Navarra and Ceuta, both with zero inflation.
In September, the annual CPI rate for constant taxes increased eight tenths, to 0.3%, and the underlying rate for constant taxes rose 1.1 percentage points, to 0.7%. In the constant tax index, the annual energy rate was -4% (-4.8% last month) and that of fresh food was 2.9% (6.5% in August). Within the core of inflation underlying constant taxes, BINES prices fell 0.8% year-on-year (-1.8% in August), processed foods rose 2.8% (1.9% last month ) and service prices increased 0.9% (-0.3% in August).
The INE has also published the harmonized CPI (IPCA) for September, whose annual rate stands at 0.5%, 1.1 points below that of the previous month. If this data is compared with the annual rate estimated by Eurostat for the euro zone as a whole (1.1%), the differential becomes favorable for Spain at 0.6 points, compared to 0.3 unfavorable in August .
In short, in September there has been a significant decrease in inflation, as expected, so that the year is expected to close below 1%. This result, if confirmed, will mean the correction of one of the traditional imbalances of the Spanish economy. The containment of the inflation rate, together with the expected continuity in the moderation of wages, will allow national production to continue to gain competitiveness, with the consequent positive impact on exports, the creation of wealth and employment.
