In the month of June, the interannual rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed down four tenths to 0.4%, mainly due to the drop in energy prices, which contrasts with the increases of June 2018.
Core inflation increased two tenths to 0.9%, mainly due to the increase in the prices of tourist services. Analyzing its components, it is observed that the rest of them continue registering very moderate increases. Thus, the prices of Services they increase their variation rate by two tenths to 1.4%. The prices of Industrial goods without energy products maintain their variation at 0.2% and those of Food with elaboration, drinks and tobacco they also increase one tenth to 0.4%.
The Food without elaboration They are exacerbating the slowdown in their prices, which they have been showing for the last few months, at 0.6%, thanks to the fall in prices of some of the most inflationary components, such as vegetables and fresh fish, which is together the remarkable decrease in prices of fresh fruits and oils and fats.
The energy prices in June they continued the path of moderation begun in April and much more sharply. Specifically, the interannual rate in this month of the prices of energy products was -2.6%, almost seven points less than the previous month.
In June, the price of oil broke its upward trend of the last six months, with Brent crude standing at $ 65.7 / barrel on average, 8.7% lower than in May and 11% lower than a year ago. In euros, the year-on-year drop was 7.9%, due to the greater current strength of the dollar. The decline in the price of oil is mainly due to the growing prospects of a slowdown in the world economy, despite other factors such as tensions in the Middle East, between Iran and the United States, or the agreement reached by the countries of the region. OPEC + to extend production cuts for another nine months, until March 2020, should push prices up.
The Harmonized Consumer Price Index stood at 0.6% in June, three tenths less than the previous month, and the average Economic and Monetary Union index remained at 1.2%. Thus, the differential with the euro zone It increases up to six tenths, as it usually happens when there is a sharp decline in energy prices, due to our greater energy dependence.
For the next few months, inflation will remain below 1.0%, for which it will have the help of core inflation, in an environment of lower economic dynamism and as long as there are no negative external shocks. The improvement of the competitiveness-price of the Spanish economy, via moderation of inflation, will only be sustainable over time if it is accompanied by the containment of other costs (fiscal, labor …).