- Both institutions agree that the Budget Plan contemplates a reduction of the public deficit.
- The evaluation of the Spanish Plan Commission is in line with those carried out in France, Belgium, Portugal and Slovenia.
The European Commission has made public today its opinion on the Budget Plan sent by the Spanish Government. The OECD has also published the Report on Economic Perspectives, which includes a record of Spain with macroeconomic forecasts for the 2018-2020 period.
The forecasts of both organizations on the Spanish economy are aligned with those of the Government. Both the European Commission and the OECD foresee that Spain will maintain a robust growth, above the average of the European Union, of 2.6% for this year and 2.2% for the next, just one tenth less than the forecast of the government.
Both agencies expect a significant decrease in the deficit in 2019. The OECD forecast coincides with that of the Government, estimating a reduction of 9 tenths and a deficit of 1.8% of GDP. For its part, the Commission expects the deficit to be reduced by 6 tenths, up to 2.1% of GDP. In both cases these are much greater reductions than those of other large community economies.
As the Commission itself has recognized, its forecast is "cautious" because Spain has not yet submitted the General State Budget. It should be borne in mind that in this ex ante phase of fiscal supervision what is evaluated are plans, which justifies the prudence of its analysis.
The figures contained in the Plan submitted by the Spanish government are within the range of flexibility provided for in the Stability and Growth Pact. As Vice President Dombrovskis himself has pointed out today the difference in calculation is due to the fact that "it has not been possible to take into account all the measures on which it has not been legislated." Along these same lines, Commissioner Pierre Moscovici pointed out when the fall forecasts were published that at this stage of the fiscal supervision cycle it is absolutely normal that there are differences between the estimates of the different agencies.
In any case, Spain will leave the corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact in 2019, that is, it will abandon the Excessive Deficit Procedure. The European Commission's evaluation of the Spanish Budget Plan responds to the greater requirement of this preventive arm and is in line with those carried out in other countries such as France, Belgium, Portugal and Slovenia.
Finally, the cooperation between the Spanish Government and the European Commission has been very good and based on transparency, as Commissioner Moscovici confirmed today.
OECD forecasts
The OECD forecasts coincide with those of the Government not only in relation to growth and deficit, but also in the economic policy objectives.
The OECD considers the reduction of high public debt and the promotion of measures that increase productivity a priority. Recommends actions that reduce temporality, improve dual vocational training, increase the participation of women in the labor market and promote children's education from 0 to 3 years. These are objectives shared by the Government and aligned with the Budget Plan adopted on October 15, which combines the necessary budgetary discipline with a social policy that reduces inequalities in our country.
