• Both energy products and industrial goods and services contribute to the increase
  • Core inflation or stable price core has increased two tenths, down to 0.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in November, compared to a 0.1% decrease a year earlier. Consequently, the year-on-year rate has increased three tenths compared to that of October, to stand at 0.2%, according to data published today by the National Statistics Institute (INE).

The evolution of the CPI in November mainly responds to energy products, non-energy industrial goods (BINES) and services. On the other hand, food has kept its inflation rate moderate, to which its two main components have contributed, although fresh food has done so more markedly.

Energy products have registered an annual rate of -0.7%, compared to -2.7% last October. Within these, its main component, fuels and fuels, has increased its annual rate from -2.5% last October to 0.4% in November. This is the result of the moderation in the price of petrol and diesel fuels in November of the current year being much less than that of a year earlier.

For its part, the annual rate of unprocessed food has decreased again, although with less force than in the previous two months. The rise has been 0.5 percentage points, to 0.4%, due, among other factors, to the moderation in the prices of fresh fruits and potatoes and their preparations. These headings have reduced their annual rate by 1.7 and 5.7 percentage points, respectively, to 4.3% and 6.7%. After this result, the strong rebound that these products registered in the May-August period of the current year continues to be corrected.

Potatoes continue to be the most inflationary item in this group, with an annual rate of 6.7%, a figure far from the 37.3% registered last July. The price of sheep meat has also moderated, although less, with a variation of -6.5% in November, which represents a rate 1.7 points lower than last month. Poultry meat is down -0.9%, rate 1.4 points lower than last month. Conversely, fresh fish has evolved, with an interannual rate that has gone from 0.1% in October to 2.4% in November this year.

Core inflation or stable core prices has risen two tenths, to 0.4%. This acceleration was mainly due to the prices of BINES and, to a lesser extent, of services. BINES have increased their annual rate from -0.8% in October to -0.4% in November, mainly due to a base effect of car prices, whose interannual rate in October (-3.5%) rose to -0.5% in November. Services have placed their annual rate at 0.1%, compared to the null rate of the previous month, an increase that has responded mainly to the communications group that has registered a rate of -6.5% in November from -7, October 5th. This is the result of the change in telephone services from a rate of -7.6% in October to another of -6.5%.

Processed food, including beverages and tobacco, reduces its annual rate by two tenths, up to 2.5%. This deceleration responds, fundamentally, to the items of oils and fats, which reduce their annual rate by more than 8 points (up to 7%). To a lesser extent, the moderation of the annual rate has influenced other items such as the prices of alcoholic beverages and mineral water and soft drinks.

The 0.2% month-on-month increase in the general index is mainly due to BINES, which increased by 1.5%. This responds to the item of clothing and footwear that rises 5%, an increase that is seasonal due to the new prices for the autumn-winter season. The processed food increased 0.1%, as a result of the rising cost of milk, dairy products, and mineral water and juices. Conversely, various components of unprocessed food influenced, such as sheep meat (-1.6%), fresh fruits (-1.5%), potatoes and preparations (-2.5%), fuels and fuels ( -1%) and tourism and hospitality (-1%).

Of the 17 autonomous communities, 14 have registered a positive inflation rate, the most inflationary being Cantabria (0.8%) and the Basque Country (0.6%). Three continued with negative rates of price variation: the Canary Islands (-0.3%), Navarra (-0.2%) and Extremadura (-0.1%). In Ceuta and Melilla inflation was -0.3% and -0.6%, respectively.

In November, the annual rate of the CPI at constant taxes increased four tenths, to 0.2%, and the underlying rate at constant taxes rose one tenth, to stand at 0.3%. In the constant tax index, the annual rate of energy was -1% (-3.1% last month) and that of fresh food, 0.4% (0.9% in October). Within the core of inflation underlying constant taxes, BINES prices stood at -0.4% year-on-year (-0.8% in the previous month), processed foods rose 2.3% (2, 5% last month) and the prices of services increased 0.1% compared to a year earlier (compared to the stability of October).

The INE has also published the harmonized CPI (IPCA) for November, whose annual rate stands at 0.3%, three tenths above that of the previous month. If this data is compared with the annual rate estimated by Eurostat for the euro area as a whole (0.9%), the differential continues to be favorable for Spain at 0.6 points, although one tenth lower than in October.

In summary, in the month of November inflation remains at very moderate levels, 0.2%, in line with the data anticipated by the INE at the end of November. With this, there is a gain in purchasing power in large groups such as pensioners, in addition to being, in general, an important relief in the cost of living. Inflation is expected to remain at low rates in the coming months. Since core inflation remains above zero, no medium-term negative rate risks are identified. Furthermore, inflation is expected to remain below that of our main competing countries, with the consequent positive impact on exports and economic recovery.

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