In the month of October, the annual rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains at 0.1%. Therefore, inflation is consolidated at very low levels, confirming the absence of inflationary pressures in the Spanish economy.
In addition, core inflation also remains very moderate, registering the same annual rate as in the previous month (1%). Analyzing its components, it is observed that all of them continue to register very moderate increases. Thus, the prices of services decrease their tenth rate of variation, up to 1.4%, while the prices of industrial goods without energy products increase one tenth to 0.5%, as do processed foods , drinks and tobacco, which also increase one tenth to 0.7%.
Unprocessed food prices increase their variation rate by five tenths and stand at 1.8%. Fresh fruits are the rubric that has a greater impact on this increase, as they increase their prices in October compared to the decrease of the previous year in this month. Part of this increase is offset by the evolution of prices of legumes and vegetables and of oils and fats.
Energy prices in October maintain similar rates of decline to those of the previous month, continuing the path of declines that began in June. Specifically, the interannual rate in this month of the prices of energy products was -6.5%, one tenth less than in the previous month.
As for the price of oil, in October it fell again, after the rebound that occurred in September as a result of attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Brent crude stood at $ 60.3 / barrel on a monthly average, 5.1% lower than in September and 26% lower than a year ago.
The deceleration of the world economy was weighing downward in the price of oil, but in November it is already around $ 62 / barrel, pending the evolution of trade negotiations between the United States and China and the effects that they may have on global activity that, if positive, would again push up the price of crude.
The Harmonized Consumer Price Index stood at 0.2% in October, the same as in September, and the average Economic and Monetary Union index dropped one tenth to 0.7%, according to the advanced indicator of Eurostat Thus, the differential with the euro zone remains negative, a result that usually occurs when there is a sharp decrease in energy prices, due to our greater energy dependence.
The notable slowdown in inflation since April has led to very low rates in recent months, hence the forecasts for the whole of 2019 point to an average annual rate around 0.7%, for below the expected average inflation for the Eurozone (1.2%, according to the ECB). This improvement in price competitiveness, through moderation of inflation, should be accompanied by the containment of other costs (fiscal, labor …) and economic policy measures that favor the growth of the productivity of the Spanish economy.