• External demand maintains momentum and contributes two points to growth, while national demand subtracts 3.6 points
  • Consumption tends to stabilize and investment in capital goods grows for the second consecutive quarter
  • The destruction of employment halts the decline, to 0.5%, in a context of wage moderation and prices
  • The economy records a financing capacity of 2.7% of GDP, compared to a 1% need last year

According to the results of the National Quarterly Accounting (CNTR), published by the INE, the GDP in volume, corrected for calendar and seasonality, recorded a quarter-to-quarter rate of -0.1% in the second quarter. This fall is three tenths lower than the first quarter of the year. In annual terms, GDP decreased 1.6%, four tenths less than in the previous quarter. In the euro zone, quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.3%.

Net external demand continued its positive evolution, with a contribution of two percentage points to the annual rate of GDP, six tenths lower than that of the first quarter. On the other hand, national demand subtracted 3.6 points from growth, one point less than from January to March.

The positive contribution of net external demand to growth was a consequence of the sharp increase in exports, whose annual rate stood at 9.2%, 5.6 points higher than in the previous quarter. Imports increased to a lesser extent, 3.1% year-on-year, compared to the 4.8% drop in the previous quarter.

In inter-quarterly terms, exports increased by 6% and of those, goods grew 6.9% and services grew 4%. Imports had an expansive behavior, with an increase of 5.9%, more intense in the case of imports of goods (6.3%) than in those of services (4.5%).

Among the components of the national demand, the moderation of the fall rate of final consumption expenditure of households in four tenths stands out, to -0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Gross fixed capital formation, on the other hand, contracted six tenths more, up to -2.1%. This greater weakening was due to investment in construction, which intensified its contraction by eight tenths, to -4.5%, and to investment in intangible fixed assets, which also fell 4.5% after advancing 5.5%. in the first trimester. On the contrary, investment in equipment grows for the second consecutive quarter, 2.9% quarter-on-quarter (0.8% in the first quarter). On the other hand, the inter-quarterly rate of consumption of Public Administrations stood at 0.9%, compared to the null variation of the previous quarter.

From the supply side, all the main branches of activity improved in inter-quarter terms except the construction that intensified the drop rate by two and a half points, to -3.1%. Services rebounded slightly to present a positive rate of 0.2% (-0.3% in the first quarter) and the industry registered a zero variation with respect to the previous quarter after falling back three consecutive quarters. The agrarian branch, on the other hand, attenuated a tenth its decrease to -1.4%.

The annual rate of the GDP deflator reaches 0.7% in annual rate, two tenths below that registered in the previous quarter. This reduction is due to the slowdown in the consumption deflator, which grew 1%, three tenths less than in the previous quarter and the fall in exports (0.5%). That of imports, on the other hand, declined with greater intensity to -2.2%, while that of gross fixed capital formation maintained its fall by 3.7%.

The rate of destruction of full-time equivalent employment moderated in the second quarter half a point in inter-quarterly terms, to -0.5% and seven tenths, to -3.8% year-on-year, in a context of wage moderation and prices. As a result of the evolution of GDP and employment, productivity per employee slowed down four tenths at an annual rate, up to 2.2%. As the salary per employee reduced its rate of decline by two tenths to -0.1%, unit labor costs fell by 2.3%, compared to 2.9% in the previous quarter. The gross surplus of the economy slowed down 2.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter.

The Spanish economy presented a financing capacity of 7,051 million euros in the second quarter of the year, compared to the need for financing in the previous quarter. In terms of nominal GDP, it represents an approximate financing capacity of 2.7% of quarterly GDP, which represents a substantial correction compared to the need for financing of 1% of GDP in the second quarter of 2012.

Finally, the INE published last Tuesday the review of the Annual National Accounts (CNA) for the period 2009-2012, the most notable being the downward revision of the growth in volume of GDP in 2012 (two tenths) , 2011 (three tenths) and 2009 (one tenth), while revised 2010 one tenth upward. This periodic review of the CNA is a common practice of statistical offices both in Spain and in the rest of the countries of the European Union. The data published today and that include the second quarter of 2013 already incorporate this review.

The results of the National Accounting for the second quarter are in line with the advanced ones. They confirm the inflection in the cyclical evolution of the Spanish economy, so that positive quarterly growth rates can be expected in the second part of the year. In parallel, there has been a moderation in the destruction of employment, in line with the EPA of the second quarter. Likewise, the correction of the external imbalances of the economy has been deepened, both in the current account balance and in the financing capacity abroad, thanks in part to the strong growth in exports of goods and services. This in turn reflects corrections of internal imbalances, among which the cumulative gains in competitiveness stand out, which strengthens the foundations of the expected recovery for the coming quarters.



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