The forecasts of Turespaña for the second quarter of 2019 point to a growth in both the expenditure and the arrival of international tourists, as reflected in the latest Tourist Situation Bulletin.
COYUNTUR forecasts an increase of 8.9% in the flow of international visitors and 9.3% in its spending. This would result in the entry of 25.5 million tourists (compared to 23.42 million in the same quarter of 2018) and an expenditure of about 26,500 million euros between April and June.
The cycle-trend series of tourist arrivals, hotel spending and overnight stays are going through a growth phase after a period of slowdown. According to the forecasts of COYUNTUR, the arrival of tourists would reach 39.7 million in the first half of the year, 7% more than in 2018. On the other hand, spending would reach 41,900 million euros, an increase of 7.4 %. The Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism in office, Reyes Maroto, stressed that these data indicate that “arrivals and spending are regaining momentum, so we can expect some positive summer months regarding tourism.”
This estimate is consistent with data from the latest edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, which shows continued growth in international tourism during the first quarter of the year. Although the pace has been slower than in the two previous years, the 4% increase recorded at the beginning of 2019 is a positive signal. Europe, the most visited area in the world, registered a robust growth (+ 4%), driven by the destinations of Southern Mediterranean Europe and Central and Eastern Europe (+5% in both cases), according to the UNWTO.
Forecasts in the issuing markets
Regarding the issuing markets, Italy stands out because of its good prospects, which in number of arrivals will grow by 12.9% in the second quarter, and Germany, which will do so by 11%.
It should be noted that the United Kingdom expects an increase of 1.4% in the second quarter. For the minister, this recovery “is a very positive fact, and is the result of delayed departure from the United Kingdom of the European Union, the reinforcement of the promotion that Spain has developed in that market and the approval of a comprehensive contingency plan to preserve the normal development of commercial flows and the economic interests of our country. ”
Finally, France forecasts an advance of 1.3% in the number of visits and the Nordic countries, a slight drop of 0.8%.
It should be remembered that the forecasts must be taken with caution, as the tourism cycle is influenced by the dynamism of the economic and social environment