• The Commission maintains the growth forecast for Spain while it revises its estimate for the euro zone one tenth downwards
  • The Commission notes that job creation is still higher than anticipated
  • Spain will leave the corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact, having reduced the deficit in 2018 to 2.5%

The European Commission today published its Spring economic forecasts, with a one-tenth decline in growth in the euro zone compared to the forecasts for Winter published in February. In this context, the Commission maintains for Spain its growth forecast of 2.1% of GDP in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020.

The Commission's estimates confirm that Spain continues to have economic growth above the average of the European Union, the euro zone and the main countries in our area. The positive growth differential has increased since the second half of the year.

Likewise, the most recent economic indicators support the positive evolution of the economy. The acting Minister of Economy and Business, Nadia Calviño, highlighted "the good tone of domestic demand at the beginning of the year, as evidenced by the National Accounts data advanced by the INE that show an acceleration of GDP growth up to 0.7% in the first quarter. "

The Commission notes in its report that employment continues to grow in our country above expectations and estimates that the unemployment rate will fall to 13.5% in 2019 and 12.2% in 2020. In this regard, the minister has indicated that the records of affiliations to the Social Security "confirm that in April the good pace of job creation continued, with a growth of 3% over the previous year".

The Government maintains its growth forecast of 2.2% for 2019 and 1.9% for 2020, included in the macroeconomic table that accompanied the Stability Program sent to Brussels last week, validated by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility ( AIReF). This forecast corresponds to that published by the Bank of Spain in March.

As regards the public deficit, the European Commission foresees a reduction from 2.5% of GDP in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019 and 2% in 2020. In this estimation, the measures of income included in the draft General State Budgets, but the measures of expenditure adopted. The reduction of the deficit achieved in 2018 will allow Spain to leave the corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact. The Commission forecasts for 2019 a decrease to 96.3% of the debt-to-GDP ratio and to 95.7% by 2020.

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