- The Spanish economy accelerates to 1.3% this year and 2% next in a less favorable European environment
- 622,000 jobs are created between this year and the one that comes after six continuous years of job destruction
- The unemployment rate ends 2015 in 22.2% of the active population, a percentage lower than at the end of the last Legislature
The Council of Ministers has approved the 2014-2015 macroeconomic scenario, which includes an upward revision of the forecasts in the two years. A growth of 1.3% is expected for 2014, one tenth above the last forecast for April this year, and 2% for 2015, two tenths higher. This improvement occurs despite a less favorable environment, especially in the eurozone. The recovery of the Spanish economy is consolidated with a growth higher than that of the single currency countries, which will allow the creation of 622,000 jobs between the two years after six years of continuous destruction of jobs. The unemployment rate will close 2015 in 22.2% of the active population, below that registered in the last quarter of 2011.
Thanks to the reforms carried out, the Spanish economy managed to grow (0.6%) in the second quarter of 2014 above the average of the euro zone partners (0.0%), weighed down by the main countries, France, Italy and Germany. The forecasts indicate that in the whole of the year the growth (1.3%) will also be higher. International organizations have revised their estimates for the eurozone slightly downward in 2014, while in the case of Spain the process has been the opposite, also for 2015. The eurozone is expected to recover the growth rate next year, thanks to a more favorable financial and fiscal environment and the impulse measures decided by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this context, the forecasts approved by the Government for the Spanish economy can be described as prudent and realistic.
The macroeconomic scenario that accompanies the General State Budgets of 2015, based on the new SEC-2010, is based on the consolidation of the recovery process initiated by the Spanish economy last year. An average annual GDP growth in volume of 1.3% is estimated in 2014, after the 1.2% drop in 2013, and an acceleration of seven tenths, up to 2%, in 2015. This scenario is based on the job creation, the positive tone of the expectations of both consumers and companies, the moderation of prices and salaries, the gradual improvement of financial conditions for companies and families, fiscal reform and the dynamism of the export sector.
The projected growth for the Spanish economy in 2014 is a consequence of the expansive behavior of national demand, which will gradually gain weight. It will contribute 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth after six negative years (-2.7 percentage points in 2013) and 1.8 points next year. This growth will contribute both private consumption and investment in capital goods, while the adjustment in the construction sector could have bottomed out to start the recovery in 2015. The combined effect of the progressive increase in consumption and the moderation of unit labor costs will allow modest increases in inflation. Competitiveness improvements will continue, while maintaining the purchasing power of income.
Net foreign demand will drain a tenth percentage to the annual variation of GDP in 2014, although in 2015 a correction of the growth pattern is expected, with a positive contribution from both national demand (1.8 percentage points) and external demand (0.2 percentage points). The expected recovery of the European economies and the depreciation of the exchange rate will allow exports to recover to grow 3.6% this year and 5.2% in 2015. The balance of the current account balance will remain in positive values and will yield a financing capacity vis-à-vis the Rest of the World, 1.5% of GDP, in 2014, and 1.7% in 2015.
The revival of the Spanish economy will be accompanied by a progressive strengthening of employment, in a context of moderation of labor costs and flexibility in the labor market. Employment will grow by 0.7% on an annual average this year (full-time equivalent jobs), after six years of continuous destruction of employment, and will accelerate seven tenths in 2015, to 1.4%. These forecasts are also higher than those of the Stability Program last April, which placed employment growth at 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively.
In terms of the EPA (Active Population Survey), the planned scenario contemplates the net creation of 622,000 jobs between the end of 2013 and the end of the next fiscal year. In that period, the number of unemployed is reduced by 860,000. The unemployment rate will decrease already this year and next, to stand at 22.2% of the active population at the end of 2015. On an annual average, the unemployment rate is reduced 1.4 points in 2014, to 24, 7% of the active population, and almost two additional points next year, up to 22.9%.
