The Institute for Economic Studies has released the report económico Economic impact of the measures adopted in the context of the present crisis ’caused by COVID-19. The document indicates that, despite the sudden and considerable impact of the current crisis, our economic fundamentals will continue to be the same that made the previous recovery possible. Therefore, it is essential to maintain them over time without making mistakes of reversing them, as would happen if we returned to the framework of the past decade. Since the beginning of this health and economic crisis, relevant measures have been taken. Among them is the support for private financing of the affected sectors through ICO guarantees.
According to the economic impact, direct measures to support the company are the ones that are having the greatest multiplier effects, in terms of sustaining production, activity and employment. This factor is explained by the great impact of the measures throughout the economic circuit, since their multiplier effect depends on a high number of interrelationships that occur between the different sectors of activity through their linkages. These linkages quantify the carrying capacity of each of the economic sectors, both as a supplier of its products to the rest of the sectors and as a applicant for the products of the other sectors.
In this way, thanks to the guaranteed private financing lines, it could have a direct positive impact on activity of up to 3.2% of the GAV and 663,000 additional jobs. And in the longer term, incorporating all the economic effects produced by the different sectoral interrelationships, these ICO financing lines could have an additional indirect and induced impact on activity of up to 8.6% of the GAV and 1,651,000 jobs additional.
The document also includes the impact of the Temporary Employment Regulation Files (ERTE), which could already be generating a direct impact on activity of up to 0.7% of GAV and 151,000 additional jobs. If these were extended until December, in order to cover the needs of the most affected sectors, then they would have an additional impact of up to 1% of GAV and 212,000 added jobs, which would have to be added to the impact of the first tranche. And, in the longer term, to the aforementioned direct effects it would be necessary to add other indirect and induced effects derived from the intersectoral relationships that would mean, according to the ERTE until June or until December, between 1.9% and 4.6% of the VAB and an improvement (or less drop in employment) of between 377,000 and 906,000 full-time jobs.
The report foresees an initial fall for activity in Spain, by 2020, calculated based on a multisectoral model, which would result in a minimum direct order of 13.1% of GAV and a loss of 2.6 million equivalent jobs. full time. The problem is that this impact would not be definitive, but the effects of measures that could avoid a direct loss of up to 4.7% of GAV would also have to be incorporated into the estimated joint net direct impact of the COVID-19 crisis. and 965,000 jobs (5.2% of employment), as well as the indirect and induced additional effects in the longer term that are especially relevant to be able to interpret the expected inflection for 2021, with a significant recovery in activity and employment lost in this exercise.
According to the IEE, our priority must be to achieve, as soon as possible, an economic normalization in which there are no restrictions on economic activity. In this case, the lawsuit could recover the path prior to the virus and / or change some of its behaviors. It is in this phase of structural change that it would be desirable to undertake improvements and "reforms" of the economic fundamentals, if so desired. That is, supply measures that enhance the long-term potential growth of the Spanish economy and that, in turn, help to rebuild aggregate demand.
Finally, the report indicates that it is necessary to incorporate a reflection of the sectorial orientation and prioritization of possible economic policy measures. From a short-term perspective, economic policy measures must prioritize the preservation of the productive fabric most affected by the crisis, such as, for example, tourism and hospitality, but in the medium and long term, measures must also be incorporated, which On the other hand, they favor the structural transformation and modernization of our country, bearing in mind that they will have a better result, in terms of activity and employment, if they materialize in support of companies in the sectors with the greatest multipliers, such as, for example , digitization, the ecological transition or the reactivation of the aforementioned industries with more added value. In any case, both in the short and medium or long term, it is imperative that no regulatory obstacle or administrative burden be introduced that supposes an additional increase in costs on the companies that prevent or limit their adaptation and reorientation before the new economic scenario that opens after the COVID-19 crisis.
