- GDP rises four tenths compared to the last forecast made by the Government last October
- The unemployment rate will be 15% at the end of the year, with about 350,000 fewer unemployed
- Investment and exports are the two most dynamic components of growth in this year.
- For the third consecutive year, both internal and external demand contribute to the improvement of the economy
The Council of Ministers has approved the update of the macroeconomic scenario that is included in the draft General State Budget for 2018. The main novelty regarding the previous forecast is the upward revision of four tenths of GDP for this year, until 2 , 7%. This increase is explained, on the one hand, by the lower political uncertainty that exists after the application of article 155 of the Spanish Constitution in Catalonia. It also contributes to the favorable evolution of investment and the improvement of the growth prospects of the world economy and, in particular, of the euro zone.
In terms of employment, the exercise will result in the creation of 475,000 jobs, a reduction in unemployment of 339,000 people and an unemployment rate at the end of the year of 15%. In the years 2017 and 2018, around one million jobs will have been created and at the end of this year 19.5 million people will be reached. These are prudent and conservative forecasts, in line with those of the main international institutions.
Spain maintains, in this way, a sustainable growth, generating employment and with a productive sector open to the outside. The Spanish economy will continue to be at the forefront of growth in 2018 among the main European economies and will close the year by accumulating six years of current account surplus balance and with external competitiveness at pre-crisis levels. In addition, there has been a significant deleveraging of the private sector, of almost 60 percentage points since its peak in 2010, a trend that will continue in this year.
In 2018, both internal and external demand recorded positive contributions to the growth of Spain, a trend that remains for the third consecutive year. The contribution of national demand reaches 2.3 percentage points (pp) compared to 1.8 pp in the previous forecast, with a more dynamic behavior of investment in fixed capital and consumption. For its part, external demand contributes one tenth less than expected in the previous scenario, up to 0.4 pp.
The assumptions on which the macroeconomic table presented today are based foresee a greater growth in world GDP, excluding the euro zone, up to 4.1% compared to October projections, and also a greater growth in the GDP of the euro zone, 2.4% compared to the previous 1.8%. Also, a higher cost of the Brent barrel is expected, up to $ 66.4. On the other hand, the same forecast of short-term interest rates is maintained at –0.3%, and long-term rates are revised downwards, standing at 1.6%.
Finally, the growth of the economy will continue to be characterized by price stability, with a downward revision of the growth of the private consumption deflator of two tenths, up to 1.4%, and of the GDP deflator of one tenth, up to 1.5%
