- GDP rises four tenths compared to the last forecast made by the Government last October
- The unemployment rate will be 15% at the end of the year, with nearly 350,000 fewer unemployed people
- Investment and exports are the two most dynamic components of growth this year
- For the third consecutive year, both internal and external demand contribute to the improvement of the economy
The Council of Ministers has approved the update of the macroeconomic scenario included in the draft of the General State Budgets for 2018. The main novelty with respect to the previous forecast is the upward revision of four tenths of GDP for this year, until 2 , 7%. This increase is explained, on the one hand, by the less political uncertainty existing after the application of article 155 of the Spanish Constitution in Catalonia. The favorable evolution of investment and the improvement of the growth prospects of the world economy and, in particular, of the euro area, also contribute.
In terms of employment, the year will end with the creation of 475,000 jobs, a reduction in unemployment of 339,000 people and an unemployment rate at the end of the year of 15%. In the years 2017 and 2018, around one million jobs will have been created and at the end of this year, 19.5 million employees will be reached. These are conservative and conservative forecasts, in line with those of the main international institutions.
Spain thus maintains sustainable growth, generating employment and with a productive sector open to the outside world. The Spanish economy will continue to position itself at the top of growth among the main European economies in 2018 and will close the year accumulating six years of current account surplus and with external competitiveness at pre-crisis levels. In addition, there has been a significant deleveraging of the private sector, of almost 60 percentage points since its peak in 2010, a trend that will continue this year.
In 2018, both internal and external demand registered positive contributions to the growth of Spain, a trend that continues for the third consecutive year. The contribution of national demand reaches 2.3 percentage points (pp) compared to 1.8 pp in the previous forecast, with a more dynamic behavior of investment in fixed capital and consumption. For its part, external demand contributes one tenth less than expected in the previous scenario, down to 0.4 pp.
The hypotheses on which the macroeconomic table that is presented today are based foresee a greater growth in world GDP, excluding the euro area, up to 4.1% compared to the projections for October, and also a greater growth in the GDP of the euro area, 2.4% compared to 1.8% previously. Likewise, a higher cost of the Brent barrel is expected, up to $ 66.4. On the other hand, the same forecast for short-term interest rates is maintained at –0.3%, and long-term rates are revised downwards, standing at 1.6%.
Finally, the growth of the economy will continue to be characterized by price stability, with a downward revision of the growth of the private consumption deflator of two tenths, down to 1.4%, and of the GDP deflator of one tenth, up to 1.5%.