- The Stability Program (2016-2019) is prepared with prudent and realistic assumptions and provides for solid and sustained growth
- At the end of 2016, the level of income lost due to the crisis will be recovered and 20 million employees will be reached in four years
- Employment growth will exceed 2% annually and the unemployment rate will fall to 14% in 2019
- A positive differential growth of more than half a point with respect to the euro zone average will be maintained
- Foreign net borrowing will be reduced thanks to the current account surplus and financing capacity
The Spanish economy will maintain an average growth rate of 2.5% over the next four years and a total of more than 1.8 million jobs will be created to reach practically 20 million employed in 2019 along with a decrease in unemployment in similar amount. These are the forecasts of the new macroeconomic table approved by the Council of Ministers and contained in the Stability Program (2016-2019) sent to Brussels. These are prudent and realistic forecasts that support and make credible the path of reduction of the public deficit that places the fiscal imbalance below 3% next year and at 1.6% of GDP in 2019.
The Stability Program forecasts extend the economic growth and exit from the recession that began in 2013 after five years of falling GDP and destroying almost 3.5 million jobs. It is estimated that at the end of 2016 the level of income that the Spanish economy had at the beginning of the crisis will recover and from there an average annual growth rate of 2.5% will be consolidated. These are figures that will keep Spain at the forefront of economic growth and job creation among advanced countries. With respect to the euro zone partners, the forecast is that a positive differential of more than half a point in growth will be maintained over these years.
The economic reforms carried out – labor, financial consolidation and fiscal consolidation – are behind the strength of the Spanish economy. The correction of macroeconomic imbalances and the improvement in competitiveness derived from the reforms allows the impact on the growth of a complex international environment to be cushioned. The Stability Program projects a slight slowdown in the first two years, mainly due to external factors, such as doubts about the growth of China, the fall in prices of raw materials and their effect in emerging countries, the volatility of markets or the depletion of the margins of monetary policy performance.
The sustained growth rate of the Spanish economy that is expected until 2019 is based on domestic demand, whose contribution will exceed an average of 2.5 points. Within the domestic demand, the investment will grow by around 5% per year, more strongly in the case of capital goods than in construction. Private consumption will maintain a growth of around 2.5%. The foreign sector will improve its contribution to GDP growth and will be in balance as of 2018.
Both unemployment and employment also extend the positive cycle that began two years ago and that allow to project the recovery of the levels of employment that the Spanish economy had before the crisis. By the end of 2019, it is expected to reach almost 20 million employees through an average annual growth rate of about 470,000 new jobs. The number of unemployed is estimated to fall by around 1.8 million in these four years and the unemployment rate will fall from 22.1% in 2015 to the 14% expected in 2019.
The competitiveness improvements and the deleveraging of the economy will also reduce net foreign indebtedness. This is due to the fact that throughout the period there will be a current account surplus and financing capacity compared to the rest of the world, above 2% of GDP in the latter case. If this forecast is confirmed, Spain will complete the longest cycle of positive balance in our foreign accounts, with eight consecutive years of financing capacity.