- The Government revises the growth forecast for this year upwards, to 2.9%, and reduces one tenth, to 2.3%, that of 2017
- About 900,000 jobs will be created in the two years and the occupation will reach 19 million by the end of 2017
- For the sixth consecutive year, the Spanish economy will generate financing capacity compared to abroad
The Council of Ministers has approved the new macroeconomic table with better figures in terms of both growth and job creation compared to that foreseen in the Stability Program sent to Brussels last April. For 2016 the growth figure of the economy has been revised upwards by two tenths, down to 2.9%, while in 2017 the estimate is reduced one tenth, down to 2.3%. The creation of 900,000 jobs is expected in the two years, while unemployment will drop by one million, figures that altogether exceed what was estimated in April. The unemployment rate will decrease to 16.6% at the end of next year, the lowest since 2008. Despite these forecasts, four years of growth and job creation will be linked, the Spanish economy will generate financing capacity against abroad for the sixth consecutive year in 2017.
These figures will serve as the basis for the preparation of the 2017 Budgets and can be considered realistic and prudent if it is taken into account that, according to the GDP advance published by the INE for the second quarter of the current year, the annual growth of the economy Spanish stands at 3.2%. The new macro table estimates that real GDP will maintain an average cruising speed of 2.6% between this year and next, despite uncertainties in the international environment. This figure exceeds the euro area average forecast by international organizations (1.6% and 1.5% in these two years) and occurs despite the fact that the growth prospects of the world economy have been revised to the low compared to what was projected last spring (up to 3.1% and 3.5%), although with an evolution for the better. The estimate regarding interest rates is maintained and it is considered that the price of oil will be somewhat higher, close to $ 50 per barrel next year.
For 2016, the Government's estimate is that the Spanish economy will grow two tenths more than expected (from 2.7% to 2.9%) thanks to a greater contribution from domestic demand and a lower withdrawal of external demand. The variation is one tenth in both cases, up to 3.2 points and -0.3 respectively. Both private consumption and exports have been revised slightly upwards, while in the case of investment, the revision is two tenths down, down to 5.4%. In 2017, on the contrary, it is considered that GDP will grow one tenth less than expected in April this year, up to 2.3%. This reduction is due to a lower contribution from national demand, specifically, from investment – both in construction and in capital goods – which will still grow 4.2% next year.
Despite the fact that the Spanish economy will achieve four years of economic growth and job creation in 2017, it is expected to maintain the surplus of the external accounts, which will mean chaining six years with financing capacity against the exterior. A positive current account balance of 1.7% of GDP is expected in 2016 and 1.5% next year. In both cases, these are forecasts equal to those contemplated in the April Stability Program. Financing capacity vis-à-vis abroad is also maintained at 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively. According to data from the Bank of Spain, the financing capacity between the months of January and May of this year has already risen to 24.3 billion euros, compared to 21 billion in the same period of the previous year.
The forecasts on the labor market also improve slightly in the two years as a whole, in line with the evolution of the economy. Employment in national accounting terms (annual full-time equivalent jobs) grows 2.7% in 2016, two tenths more than estimated in April, while in 2017 job creation remains at 2 ,2%. In terms of the EPA (Active Population Survey), the number of employed is expected to end 2017 at 18,993 million, a figure that would be the highest since the third quarter of 2009. Between the two years, 899,000 jobs will be created and the number of unemployed will decrease. at 1,003 million. At the end of 2017 there will be 3,777 million unemployed in Spain, the lowest number since the fourth quarter of 2008. The unemployment rate is expected to close the fourth quarter of 2017 at 16.6% of the working population, which would mean drop 4.3 points in two years and place it at the lowest level also since the fourth quarter of 2008.
