- The Government revised upward the growth forecast for this year, up to 2.9%, and reduces a tenth, up to 2.3%, of 2017
- Nearly 900,000 jobs will be created in the two years and the occupation will reach 19 million by the end of 2017
- For the sixth consecutive year, the Spanish economy will generate financing capacity abroad
The Council of Ministers has approved the new macroeconomic chart with better figures in both growth and job creation than expected in the Stability Program sent to Brussels last April. For 2016, the economy's growth figure has been revised upwards by two tenths, up to 2.9%, while in 2017 the estimate is reduced by one tenth, up to 2.3%. The creation of 900,000 jobs is expected in the two years, while unemployment will fall by one million, figures that exceed the estimate in April. The unemployment rate will decrease to 16.6% at the end of next year, the lowest since 2008. Despite these forecasts, four years of growth and job creation will be linked, the Spanish economy will generate financing capacity against abroad for the sixth consecutive year in 2017.
These figures will serve as a basis for the preparation of the 2017 Budgets and can be considered realistic and prudent if it is taken into account that, according to the progress of the GDP published by the INE corresponding to the second quarter of the current year, the annual growth of the economy Spanish stands at 3.2%. The new macro chart estimates that real GDP will maintain an average cruise speed of 2.6% between this year and next, despite uncertainties in the international environment. This figure exceeds the average of the euro zone provided by international organizations (1.6% and 1.5% in these two years) and occurs despite the growth prospects of the world economy have been revised to the low compared to what was projected last spring (up to 3.1% and 3.5%), although with a better evolution. The estimate regarding interest rates is maintained and the price of oil is considered to be somewhat above, close to $ 50 per barrel next year.
For 2016, the Government's estimate is that the Spanish economy will grow two tenths more than expected (from 2.7% to 2.9%) thanks to a greater contribution from domestic demand and a lower detraction from external demand. The variation is one tenth in both cases, up to 3.2 points and -0.3 respectively. Both private consumption and exports have been slightly revised upwards, while in the case of investment, the review is down two tenths, down to 5.4%. In 2017, on the contrary, GDP is expected to grow one tenth less than expected in April this year, up to 2.3%. This reduction is due to a lower contribution from national demand, specifically, from investment – both in construction and in capital goods – which will still grow 4.2% next year.
Although the Spanish economy will achieve four years of economic growth and job creation in 2017, it is expected to maintain the surplus of the external accounts, which will entail chaining six years with financing capacity abroad. A positive current account balance of 1.7% of GDP is expected in 2016 and 1.5% next year. In both cases, these are forecasts equal to those contemplated in the Stability Program of April. Foreign financing capacity is also maintained at 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively. According to data from the Bank of Spain, the financing capacity between January and May of this year has already amounted to 24,300 million euros, compared to 21,000 million in the same period of the previous year.
The forecasts on the labor market also improve slightly over the two years as a whole, consistent with the evolution of the economy. Employment in terms of national accounting (full-time equivalent jobs on an annual average) grows 2.7% in 2016, two tenths more than estimated in April, while in 2017 job creation remains at 2 ,two%. In terms of the EPA (Active Population Survey), the number of employed people is expected to end 2017 at 18,993 million, a figure that would be the highest since the third quarter of 2009. Between the two years, 899,000 jobs will be created and the number of unemployed will be reduced in 1,003 million. At the end of 2017 there will be 3,777 million unemployed in Spain, the lowest number since the fourth quarter of 2008. The unemployment rate is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2017 at 16.6% of the active population, which would mean lower 4.3 points in two years and place it at the lowest level also since the fourth quarter of 2008.
