In June, the interannual rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated six tenths to -0.3%, although it still remains negative. Inflation moderates its rate of decline, due to the lower decline in energy products.
Underlying inflation maintains a very stable rate and only falls one tenth to 1.0%, a rate similar to that recorded in the last 12 months. Analyzing its components, it is observed that all of them continue to show very contained increases. Thus, the prices of services maintain their variation rate at 1.3%, and the prices of industrial goods without energy products remain at 0.1%, while processed foods, beverages and tobacco decreased three tenths up to 1.7%.
The prices of unprocessed foods decrease their variation rate by more than one point and stand at 4.1%, although they continue to be the most inflationary component of the basket, with the most intense increases concentrated in the fresh fruit headings. , pork and other meats.
The INE has developed two indicators to determine the evolution of the prices of the group of products most consumed by society during confinement (COVID-19 Goods and COVID-19 Services), given that the declaration of the state of alarm has an impact on the household consumption patterns. COVID-19 goods are food, beverage, tobacco, cleaning and non-durable household items, pharmaceuticals, pet food and personal care items. COVID-19 services include housing and garage rental services, water distribution, sewerage, garbage collection, community expenses, electricity, gas, diesel for heating, telephone services, music and television streaming, insurance, commissions banking and funeral services.
The interannual rate of the prices of COVID-19 goods stood at 2.3%, compared to 2.8% in May, mainly due to the lower increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which represent an important weight within this special index.
The interannual rate of the prices of COVID-19 services stood at -2.4%, compared to -4.0% in May, an evolution that has been determined by the increase in the prices of supplies in June ( electricity, gas and other fuels).
Energy prices in June moderate their rate of decline. Specifically, the year-on-year rate of energy product prices this month was -11.9%, almost six points more than the previous month (-17.7%).
In June, the price of oil continued the upward trend that started in May. Brent crude oil continued to rise to stand at $ 40.5 / barrel on a monthly average, although it still represents a decrease of -38.4% compared to the previous year in dollars and -38.2% in euros. The cut in production, both within OPEC, which has marked minimums since 2002, and in other producers, together with the prospects of a reactivation of the economy, as several countries are leaving behind their stages of confinement, has boosted the increase in oil prices. So far in July, the average has been $ 43.8 / barrel and futures prices suggest that it will fluctuate around $ 43 / barrel until the end of the year, so energy will continue to press downward to inflation over the next few months.
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices stood at -0.3% in June, six tenths more than in May, and the average index of the Economic and Monetary Union increased two tenths to 0.3%, according to the indicator Eurostat Advanced. Thus, the negative differential with the euro zone is reduced to six tenths.
Looking ahead to the coming months, the evolution of inflation will turn positive, albeit with very moderate rates, and will be conditioned by the behavior of oil prices and the drop in demand for some goods and services derived from the crisis. of the coronavirus. For the year 2020 as a whole, we anticipate an average CPI rate of around 0%.
