- The forecasts are realistic and are in line with those made recently by the European Commission and other international organizations
- They respond to an external context that has deteriorated in recent months and to the government's decision to reduce the deficit to meet European commitments.
The Government today gave the green light to the new macroeconomic scenario for 2012, which includes a 1.7% drop in GDP. This forecast is in line with that made by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Spain. It is a realistic estimate in the face of a very complicated economic situation in the international context. It includes the impact of the fiscal adjustment to which the Government is committed to its European partners.
The 1.7% drop in GDP for 2012 is a consequence of a 4.6% drop in domestic demand that responds to a 1.4% decrease in private consumption and 11.5% in that of Public administrations. Investment fell by 6.9%, weighed down by the construction sector, which contracted by 7.8%. The foreign sector maintains its positive contribution to growth, of 2.9 points in 2012, thanks to exports growing 3.4% while imports contracting 5.9%.
The new macroeconomic scenario contemplates a decrease of 3.7% in employment and an increase to 24.3% in the unemployment rate. These data identify what is the main problem of the Spanish economy and justify the labor reform approved by the Government. Its effects will begin to be felt more quickly as companies apply internal flexibility measures and the general context improves.
The Spanish economy faces a difficult year whose course the Government hopes to correct with the approved structural measures. In addition to the labor reform, the one that has affected the financial sector will allow a recovery of credit and, consequently, of investment and employment. The fiscal adjustment that accompanies the macroeconomic scenario will make it possible to set the conditions for a growth model with stronger foundations.
